The Psychology of Inflation and Geopolitical Developments: Just as it seemed impossible for the macro environment for investors to get any more challenging, October brought the addition of the Israel/Hamas war, which threatens to escalate into a regional conflict in a part of the world that plays a critical role in the supply of oil. Beyond the horrendous toll of human suffering, the Israel/Hamas war has the potential to create geopolitical turmoil far beyond the obvious potential for higher oil prices. We live in a world in which traditional market relationships and correlations are breaking down, at least temporarily, in favour of counter-intuitive/surprising developments like the Hamas attack on Israel......
Prepare for a Volatile 2023: 2022 was a very difficult year in almost every sense of the word, though we can take some comfort from an investment standpoint that our analysis kept us properly bearish o markets, and thus, we avoided most of the market decline. Moreover, we were able to seize some opportunities (notably in oil stocks early in the year) that allowed us to post a positive return for our investing activities for the calendar year. The key to our success in 2022 was maintaining a clear-eyed realism about inflation and central bank policies.....
The Bear Market Rally is Over...Now what: The strong rally in U.S. and global stocks from their June price lows came to a shuddering halt in August in response to the entirely predictable (at least to us) comments by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) that it fully intends to continue aggressively raising interest rates until there is evidence of a material economic slowdown. The bear market rally was based on the widely-held false narrative that the Fed was nearing the end of its rate increases. We devoted a substantial portion of the last issue to elaborating on the reasons why we believed the consensus opinion on rates was wrong.....
A Month of Real and Potential Turning Points: We have written since the start of the publication of the Global Investment Letter of our expectation that the 2020s will prove to be a challenging decade for investors, given the multitude of available economic and geopolitical catalysts for volatility. The decade has scarcely begun, and the world has already experienced a global pandemic that has caused millions of deaths. Now we are witnessing the first major war in Europe since WW2 with the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Both events will have long-lasting consequences, some of which can be anticipated and some not. The law of unintended consequences is at work everywhere and at all times.....
The Importance of Price Action: The S&P 500 rose strongly in October despite the negative seasonal tendencies of the month and a preponderance of evidence presented in these pages in support of our contention, held for most of 2021, that equity markets represent a poor risk/reward proposition for investors. The essence of successful investing is the constant calculation of the probability of outcomes because investors do not possess the luxury of dealing in certainties. Our calculation of probabilities strongly suggested that we would experience a sharp market correction at some point in 2021 as the aggregate of our measures (both public and proprietary) of valuation and investor sentiment suggested that the probability of a market pullback was very high.....
The first quarter of 2021 is at an end, and while this year started much as 2020 ended, there is reason for optimism. Winter is over, and the weather is improving (for subscribers in the northern hemisphere), while the distribution of vaccines in most countries is (finally) well underway. Stock markets generally performed well in the first quarter. While we acknowledge these positive developments, we cannot help but continue to be concerned about a raft of potential catalysts....
This line, borrowed from the great song by the Buffalo Springfield, seemed an apt title for this month’s introduction, given the significant moves by markets this past month that have suggested a host of new or potential trend changes set against a backdrop of unusual uncertainty.The global geopolitical backdrop, which we continue to see as being an important influence on investment returns through the decade, remains troubled as 2021 nears. In the United States, Donald Trump has contested the election result as....
As we write this, Joe Biden has just pulled into the lead in Pennsylvania and now seems assured of becoming the next President of the United States. Donald Trump has reportedly stated that he will refuse to concede, which creates the possibility of Secret Service agents having to bodily carry him from office in January so that Biden can assume the presidency. It is a sad commentary on our times that the last sentence is not completely facetious....
This issue will be largely concerned with the Coronavirus both for its anticipated role as a catalyst for substantial market volatility and the lingering misperceptions about its nature. Our comments this month are by necessity more short-term in their orientation than is typical because of the emergence of the Coronavirus. Its effects will almost certainly be significant and will, in turn, influence the performance of capital markets once the pandemic passes. Investors’ response to this threat will play a material role in determining their long-term investment results....
The decade is starting on a positive note for investors, with most global equity markets ending 2019 on a bullish note. Supporting further upside for markets is, as we have discussed in these pages, an apparent commitment by central banks and governments as they implement both monetary and fiscal measures to support the global economy and postpone the next recession. There is a great deal of concern by central banks about the potential severity of the next recession/bear market, given the fragile underpinnings of the global economy. We can, therefore, expect....
The major challenge facing global economies and capital markets is how to cope with the current slowing of the world economy in an era when central banks, having largely used their traditional tools in addressing the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath, have a diminished capacity to combat a recession. How the current long-lived economic expansion will be extended, given the tenuous nature of the global economy and markets, has been much on our mind. We believe we have identified the strategy that will be used to avert a recession in the short-term and provide capital markets with one final leg higher....
Several converging issues should make the headlines this month, with Brexit being top of mind for your editor. The deadline of March 29th is fast approaching, with markets reflecting a belief that an extension to negotiations will be sought, with the possibility of a second referendum being held. This outcome was discussed in past issues and still seems the most likely. However, one shouldn’t discount incompetence on the part of the May government and a “hard” Brexit with no deal remains a possibility. We reiterate our view that it remains premature to take meaningful positions in either the FTSE or the pound until after a resolution to the deadline....
