THE BEST MEASURE OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT?
Trigger goes hereExtremes of investor sentiment, whether bullish or bearish, have proven to be a valuable tool for identifying periods with a high probability of major trend changes.Indeed, [...]
THE VELOCITY OF MONEY IS AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION DESPITE PERSISTENT INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
By Jonathan Baird - January 15, 2022 The velocity of money (the frequency at which money changes hands) sits near all-time lows and is again slowing, following a short-lived [...]
NON-S&P 500 STOCKS REACH LOWEST RELATIVE VALUATION IN DECADES
By Jonathan Baird - January 7, 2022 Perhaps the defining characteristic of the bull market of recent years has been its exceedingly narrow breadth, rivalled only by the markets [...]
INSIDER SELLING IS PRODUCING THE GREATEST TRANSFER OF INVESTMENT RISK IN HISTORY
A long-time investment maxim is that it pays to watch the stock transactions of company insiders, for they are in the best position to know the future earnings [...]
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHART OF 2022: CAPITAL FLOWS INTO EQUITIES WERE GREATER IN 2021 THAN THE COMBINED INFLOWS OF THE PREVIOUS 19 YEARS
By Jonathan Baird - December 7, 2021 We have long found that the analysis of capital flows, investor sentiment and market extremes are among the most useful factors to [...]
THE INTANGIBLE STOCK MARKET?
By Jonathan Baird - November 16, 2021 The ratio of tangible to intangible (e.g., goodwill) has changed substantially over the years. In 1975 fully 83% of the S&P 500’s [...]
THE VALUE OF GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS EQUALED WORLD GDP IN 2021 FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN HISTORY
Global stock markets, fueled by a combination of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus and extreme investor optimism, have soared to match the value of global GDP. The only [...]
STOCK MARKETS ARE PRODUCING NEGATIVE TOTAL REAL RETURNS (INCLUDING DIVIDENDS) FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
The total earnings return on equities (calculated as the inverse of the P/E ratio plus dividends) are currently negative for the first time in history. Inflationary pressures and [...]